I want to start by giving credit where it is due. Matt Shumer wrote a piece that hit a nerve because he did what most people will not: he said the quiet part out loud. He used that February 2020 feeling — that weird moment when a few people were paying close attention while everyone else was still booking vacations and arguing about noise — and he used it as a mirror. Not a prediction. A pattern.
I am not here to dunk on his ideas. I am here to build on them. Because I am living my own version of that same moment right now. And honestly, I am frustrated that nobody around me is listening.
Where I Live, Everyone's Acting Like It's 2019
I am in Winnipeg. I love it here. Real people, family, roots. But Winnipeg has a superpower and a weakness: it is stable. And stability has a dark side — it convinces you that tomorrow will look like yesterday.
So I will be at a dinner table, at a rink, in a business conversation, and people are still operating on the old rules. Get a safe job. Keep your head down. AI is a fad. Yeah, I tried ChatGPT once — it was kind of dumb. This won't affect my work.
And I am sitting there thinking: are we watching the same reality?
Because I am not reading about this. I am not interested in it. I am in the middle of it. I am building in it, shipping in it, watching workflows collapse from weeks to hours. Watching people go from that is impossible to wait, it did what? in a single afternoon. The gap between what I am seeing and what most people believe is now so large it feels dangerous.
The Most Misunderstood Part: It's Not AI — It's Automated Competence
Most people think AI is a tool. Like Excel. Like Google. Like a better Siri.
That is not what is happening.
What is happening is that competence is being automated. Not one skill, not one task — competence. The ability to write, analyze, plan, design, draft, revise, test, decide, iterate, improve. All of it. At the same time. For a fraction of the previous cost and time.
And once competence becomes cheap and fast, the entire economy re-prices. That is the part people miss. They think this is an app. It is not. This is a new layer of reality showing up underneath everything we do — the way electricity did, the way the internet did, the way mobile did. Except faster. And more personal. Because it is coming for the thing we thought made us safe: our brains, our expertise, our identity.
Why I Know It's Real: I've Seen the Tremor Before
I have lived through enough cycles to recognize this feeling. I built a company through the rise of social media. I watched brands go from we do not need Facebook to why didn't we take this seriously earlier? in what felt like a blink. I watched entire industries get reorganized by platforms.
And here is what I learned the hard way: people do not move when change is happening. They move when change has already won. They do not prepare in the weak-signal phase. They prepare in the oh sh*t phase. By then, it is not strategy. It is survival.
We are in the early phase right now. But I will add something from my own lived experience that Matt's framing does not quite capture: this time, the change is not just outside of you. It is inside your job. Inside your workflow. Inside your confidence. It is not the market changed. It is the meaning of being competent changed. That hits different.
The Local Illusion: Nothing's Changed Here
This is the trap. If you live somewhere that has not been visibly disrupted yet, you start to believe disruption is not coming. But disruption does not arrive like a parade. It arrives like a quiet reordering of value.
First, a few people start using the tools. Then they get faster. Then they get promoted. Then they start a company. Then they hire fewer people. Then your friend cannot find a job. Then the job postings change. Then the salaries change. Then the entry level disappears.
And everyone acts surprised. But it was not sudden. It was ignored.
I'm Not Saying Panic. I'm Saying Wake Up.
Here is the truth I have been too polite to say out loud: if your work happens on a screen — if your day is reading, writing, messaging, analyzing, planning, coordinating — a meaningful chunk of what you do is now automatable. Not someday. Now.
And if you tried AI a year or two ago and decided it was not impressive, that is like trying dial-up once and concluding the internet would never matter. The version you touched is not the version that exists today. And the version that exists today will look primitive compared to what is landing next. The curve is not linear. It is compounding.
What's Different About This Wave
In past waves, the winners were the ones who learned the tools. This wave is different. The winners are the ones who learn to think in systems.
- What can be delegated?
- What can be automated?
- What can be turned into an engine?
Because AI is not just a tool you use. It is a workforce you direct. And if you do not learn to direct it, someone else will — and they will lap you without trying.
The Opportunity Nobody's Talking About
Let me flip this, because it is not all doom. This is also the greatest leverage moment of our lifetime. If you have ever had ideas and felt blocked by time, money, technical skills, hiring, confidence, or complexity — those walls are cracking.
One person with clarity, taste, courage, and AI is going to do what teams used to do. Builders are about to look like magicians. A lot of people are about to get disrupted. But a lot of people are about to get unlocked. The difference between those two groups is not IQ. It is willingness.
What I Want From the People in My Life
Do not nod politely when I talk about this. Do not dismiss it because it feels uncomfortable. Instead:
- Stop trying AI. Start using it for real work. Not questions. Work.
- Pay for the best tools. Free tiers are demos, not reality.
- Spend one hour a day building the muscle. Not reading about it — using it, failing, iterating.
- Ask yourself one question every morning: What part of my day could be compressed by 80%?
Because that is what is happening. Compression.
Final Thought
Matt framed this as a February 2020 moment. I agree. And I will add my own version: this is not the future knocking on the door. This is the future rearranging the furniture while you are still watching TV.
Something big is happening. And if you are waiting until everyone around you agrees, you are going to be late.
So do not be late. Be early. Be curious. Be a builder.
And if you are annoyed that I am saying this? Good. That means you heard me.